TECHNOS

August 21, 2008

TECHNOS QUARTERLY Summer 1992 Vol. 1 No. 2

Visions of Learning in the 21st Century

By Marilyn W. Norris

Futurists are professional visionaries who identify and examine today's emerging forces and trends and project their impact on the future. Their job is not to predict the future, but rather to make us aware of possible futures and to help us determine which are probable. While pointing out the pitfalls we may encounter, they spur us to work toward creating the future we desire. In recent discussions with futurists Clement Bezold, Wallace Hannum, Joel Lapin, and Nancy Risser, Marilyn Norris—herself a futurist—heard of their visions of learning in the 21st century.* She relates those visions here, along with the hurdles that must be overcome and the critical issues that must be addressed.

(Clement Bezold, executive director of the Institute for Alternative Futures and president of Alternative Futures Associates in Alexandria, Virginia, is a political scientist. Wallace Hannum, associate professor of education at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, is a contributing author of U.S. military and Internal Revenue Service training guides. Joel Lapin, professor of sociology at Catonsville Community College in Baltimore, is a member of the Environmental Scan Committee of the United Way of America. Nancy Risser, president of Risser and Associates consulting firm in New York City, is an economist who specializes in the economic impact of technological change.)

The Vision

Envision this: The year 2010, a Saturday afternoon in mid-July, in a shopping mall. People of all ages, from 5 to 85, sit side by side, accessing information from a bank of computers situated between a bookstore and a clothing outlet. An image flashes on each screen—one graphic, one animated, one motion video, one still image. A myriad of sounds is heard, as each intelligent terminal responds to the learner's commands. School—learning, rather—is happening in the mall of the future, where knowledge is a prized commodity and it's available to anyone, at any time.

In the 21st century, we'll have learning networks that link intelligent terminals and multimedia devices in homes, public and private schools and universities, corporate settings, libraries, and community centers. Hospitals, churches, public buildings, shopping malls, even prisons will serve as learning sites. The list will be limited only by our creativity in identifying where potential learners are and where they would like to access the learning network.

Learning will be available to every person who wants to learn. Because it will no longer be delivered in person, learning will be decentralized and will occur wherever the learner happens to be and whenever the learner requests it. Learning will be individualized and interactive, learner activated and controlled; it will be a lifelong endeavor.

Think of it: Dramatic improvements in learning and problem solving will be possible as learners have access to interactive multimedia resources, such as cross-referenced audiovisual dictionaries and encyclopedias with unlimited retrieval capabilities. These resources will enhance motivation, individualization, cooperative learning, and parental involvement.

New forms of child-oriented, interactive, and participatory multimedia learning resources will be available over cable and telephone lines as new communications capabilities and networks are put into place. Learners of all ages will have access to interactive video, on-line databases, and other such materials in their homes as well as in schools. Educational programming on cable television will expand.

Sophisticated computer software will customize learning material to take into account the learner's prior knowledge, cognitive strengths, interests, and cultural backgrounds. Technologies of the future will allow learners to master higher levels of content and to do it more quickly. People no longer will be satisfied with average levels of accomplishment; a certain percentage of failures will be unthinkable.

In the workplace of the next century, lines between work and learning, between real life and lessons, will fade. Local area networks, electronic interfaces, and high-speed computers will allow learning to be an ongoing process, with the learner moving in and out of the educational mode as needed or desired. Retraining—today's term for tomorrow's lifelong learning model—will be thought of as just another phase in professional development. As learners set their own pace, their learning will become more efficient and effective.

In the next millennium, we will change our focus from how long people spend at learning—how many hours per credit, for example, or how many days per semester—to the results—what they can do, what they know, how their skills have improved. Rote learning and memorization will be emphasized less, and the skills of information access, critical thinking, problem solving, and learning how to learn will be emphasized more.

The use of technology itself will change how people think. The concept of basic skills will be redefined beyond language and math to spatial interpretation and data synthesis. Because the new technology will work in unseen ways, people will begin to think in more abstract terms. Understanding the complexity of the computer will help us understand the complexity of our reality.

In the next century, creativity will be fostered as an important intellectual skill. Our ability to think holistically, to jump back and forth from detail to overview, and to organize thoughts on a both-and continuum of possibilities instead of sharp either-or dichotomies will be expanded. In fact, our concept of an educated person will change. No longer will we admire the person who has memorized a lot of facts. Instead, we will reward the one who can find, use, and apply information.

The role of the teacher will change. Because 21st-century learners will have access to a rich store of knowledge and instructional material via satellite and fiber-optic networks, the teacher will no longer be merely a dispenser of information but a guide or coach who facilitates the learning process. The entire teaching-learning environment will become a cooperative venture, rather than a hierarchical organization.

Teacher education programs will be redesigned so that teachers will learn by using the same processes and technologies they will later use to teach. Veteran teachers, alongside their students, will continue to be learners. Information networks will foster collegiality, as teachers will find ready access to their peers and experts on whatever topic they wish to pursue. Teachers also will be better able to involve parents in their children's learning through technological links such as computer modems between school and home.

In the next century, lifelong learning will no longer be defined as merely taking courses. Instead, it will be a way of keeping pace with the new information that every profession and every kind of work will require. Immigrants and adult dropouts will have access to literacy programs and skills for employment. As medical technologies lengthen life expectancy and improve the quality of life, the number of older people will increase. The demand for leisure learning, retraining, and community participation also will grow.

Early childhood and K–12 educational programs will form the foundation for lifelong learning. Workstation training in corporate offices and industrial settings will be natural extensions. Colleges and universities will continue to perform research that “stretches the envelope” of our thinking as they continue to provide general education and professional development programs. Ours will be a total learning society in which all social organizations and institutions are committed to learning as a way of adapting to rapid change.

The Hurdles

Will the vision become reality? Technology now available or in the developmental stages—telephone/TV interfaces, computers, interactive television, satellite video and data transmission, for example—can bring about this vision of learning. Whether or not it happens will depend upon decisions made by all of us as educators, as parents, as taxpayers, as legislators, and as businesspeople. First, however, we must overcome several hurdles.

The vision will require the universal installation of the necessary broadband fiber-optic networks. Our existing communication networks have limited information-carrying capacity. Although some corporations and universities are installing the kind of networks necessary, access for private homes could become a severe bottleneck. Congressional legislation that mandates the deployment of a broadband fiber-optic network in the United States by the year 2015—when Japan is due to complete its national broadband network—is now pending. The American deployment plan gives high priority to education facilities and requires that network modernization take place at the same rate in inner city and rural areas as it does in affluent and populous areas.

We must address the questions of equity of access to all information through such networks. Many fear that the privatization of learning technology and the installation of a network driven by market forces would severely limit access for the less affluent. If we do not address the risk of creating a gap between the information and technology haves and have-nots, already strained social division could be greatly exacerbated.

We must change public opinion, which holds that technology only serves to put people out of work. A sharp division in opinion between business leaders and the public was reported in a February 1991 Business-Higher Education Forum/Public Agenda Foundation analysis of focus group interviews and public opinion research. Business leaders thought American workers needed better technical, thinking, and teamwork skills. But the public perception was that our workers just need to work harder. The public finds it difficult to see technology as a solution because, at some level, they fear it. Especially as technology literacy varies so widely by age, this public perception by an older, more politically active generation could become a very difficult hurdle to a nationwide initiative.

Ways to ensure the quality and usability of the information sent out over networks must be found. We cannot simply repackage books and lectures and distribute them over the new technologies. Rather, we should develop high-quality, effective educational materials that produce higher levels of student mastery. Wide distribution of poor quality, ineffective instructional materials will not improve the learning process or its outcomes.

We must develop a new way of thinking about education. As the art and science of teaching changes, transformations in many of our social and educational institutions will be required. Such change is difficult. Issues of control, values, conflicts, and traditions must be considered. We know that when learners are actively involved in seeking out information and constructing their own views, their ability to think and understand expands enormously. But a system that is overly concerned with exams, degrees, credentials, and certification would seriously inhibit the potential of extending learning to everyone.

The vision will not be realized without proper funding. The introduction of new learning technologies means new equipment and time for training, and instructional systems have high up-front costs and development time before they get to learners. New ways of funding these systems must be devised. Joint ventures and cooperative alliances between the public and private sectors have been tried in some cases with good results. At Catonsville Community College in Baltimore, for instance, partnerships with a local cable TV company and with IBM have allowed the campus to network its computers. A large-scale learning network should have centralized development of instructional resources and decentralized delivery to learners.

The Issues

The possibilities of a true learning society are enormous; the potential of what can be is great. While the necessity is clear, the probability of success is not. Questions of varying magnitude remain unanswered, though informed debate has begun on many of the issues.

We must be aware, however, that new issues will continue to arise and that none will be easy to resolve. As we pursue our personal and collective visions for learning in the 21st century, we must consider and decide how we would answer questions such as those that follow. For if we do not manage these issues well, we may create by default a society very different from the one we desire.

How should we manage the process of social change that would take us from what education is today to what learning could mean tomorrow?

How should we ensure equal access to information and learning technologies for all socioeconomic and generational segments of the population?

How should we guard against the potential isolation that may result from a broadly dispersed system of individualized learning?

How should we take advantage of the attention-getting power of technology while overcoming its power to produce compulsive addictions to stimuli?

How should we translate the expertise of business, industry, and the military into learning programs for everyone?

How should we accommodate differing value systems in the design of learning materials and systems?

How should we devise systems of evaluation and accountability that will help us monitor the learning that has actually occurred?

How should the process of granting credentials be expanded to accept the accomplishments of all learners in a learning society?

How should we ensure that the materials used with learning technologies expand the learner's knowledge, understanding, and critical thinking skills through active involvement?

How should we choose the words to name and describe the new technologies—such as virtual reality, which the Japanese call “intimate presence”—in order to shape our approach to learning and the use of technology?

How should we achieve national consensus on what we want our society to be and what role we believe our schools should play in that society?

How should we ensure that inappropriate uses of technology do not undermine the vision?

How should we solve the dilemma of a more boundary-free telecommunications system in combination with the geographic and political boundaries that enclose our current educational systems and institutions?

Certainly, we have the capability to make the vision a reality. The critical question is: Do we have the will?

The Communications Competitiveness and Infrastructure Modernization Act of 1991, HR2546, calls for the implementation of a broadband fiber-optic network in the United States by the year 2015. It awaits action in the Telecommunications and Finance Subcommittee of the House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee.

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Marilyn W. Norris, founder and president of 21st Century Resources, Inc., in Dallas, is a writer and former educator. In 1979 she joined JCPenney as editor of Forum magazine, a publication dedicated to bringing information on trends and issues to educators. Norris, a research manager in Penney's Corporate Planning and Research Department, is president of the Dallas/Fort Worth chapter of The Planning Forum, an international organization of professionals in the field of strategic management and planning.